1. The Golden Number: What is your exact closing price for SPX? 6,855 The exact year-end close for December 31, 2025, settled around 6,855 after low-volatility holiday trading.
2. The "Why" January 1, 2026, is a federal holiday (New Year's Day), so U.S. stock markets, including the NYSE and Nasdaq, are fully closed—no trading session occurs at all. There is no "holiday session" with abbreviated hours or thin liquidity driving moves; the tape is silent. The last traded price remains the close from December 31, 2025, which capped a strong year for the S&P 500 with roughly 17% gains, driven primarily by continued AI enthusiasm, resilient corporate earnings (especially in tech and communication services), and the Federal Reserve's accommodative stance through three rate cuts in 2025.
There was no rampant FOMO on the final day—volume was characteristically low for year-end, with tax-loss harvesting, portfolio rebalancing, and window dressing dominating rather than aggressive buying. Liquidity didn't "dry up" in a concerning way; it was simply the typical holiday taper, with traders stepping away early. The slight dip on December 31 reflected mild profit-taking after a multi-year rally, not panic or forced selling. Overall, this non-session on January 1 marks a quiet transition into 2026, where broader market breadth, potential Fed policy shifts, and AI monetization will likely set the tone rather than any holiday-specific dynamics.
3. Bullish or Bearish: Are you holding positions into 2026 or going to Cash? Bullish. I'm holding positions into 2026—no shift to cash.
Macro: The U.S. economy avoided recession in 2025 despite tariff concerns and a modest uptick in unemployment to ~4.6%. Expected further rate cuts (at least two) in 2026, combined with healthy consumer spending and tax refunds, provide a supportive backdrop. Earnings growth is projected at 12-15%, broadening beyond mega-caps.
Techs: AI remains the dominant theme, with monetization accelerating—think expanding margins in software, data centers, and industrial automation. Valuations are elevated, but justified by structural growth; breadth is improving as financials and industrials participate more. Sad Day for Me, Last Day of 2025
6,855
The exact year-end close for December 31, 2025, settled around 6,855 after low-volatility holiday trading.
2. The "Why"
January 1, 2026, is a federal holiday (New Year's Day), so U.S. stock markets, including the NYSE and Nasdaq, are fully closed—no trading session occurs at all. There is no "holiday session" with abbreviated hours or thin liquidity driving moves; the tape is silent. The last traded price remains the close from December 31, 2025, which capped a strong year for the S&P 500 with roughly 17% gains, driven primarily by continued AI enthusiasm, resilient corporate earnings (especially in tech and communication services), and the Federal Reserve's accommodative stance through three rate cuts in 2025.
There was no rampant FOMO on the final day—volume was characteristically low for year-end, with tax-loss harvesting, portfolio rebalancing, and window dressing dominating rather than aggressive buying. Liquidity didn't "dry up" in a concerning way; it was simply the typical holiday taper, with traders stepping away early. The slight dip on December 31 reflected mild profit-taking after a multi-year rally, not panic or forced selling. Overall, this non-session on January 1 marks a quiet transition into 2026, where broader market breadth, potential Fed policy shifts, and AI monetization will likely set the tone rather than any holiday-specific dynamics.
3. Bullish or Bearish: Are you holding positions into 2026 or going to Cash?
Bullish. I'm holding positions into 2026—no shift to cash.
Macro: The U.S. economy avoided recession in 2025 despite tariff concerns and a modest uptick in unemployment to ~4.6%. Expected further rate cuts (at least two) in 2026, combined with healthy consumer spending and tax refunds, provide a supportive backdrop. Earnings growth is projected at 12-15%, broadening beyond mega-caps.
Techs: AI remains the dominant theme, with monetization accelerating—think expanding margins in software, data centers, and industrial automation. Valuations are elevated, but justified by structural growth; breadth is improving as financials and industrials participate more.
Sad Day for Me, Last Day of 2025