My Prediction: I expect the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) to close today at 25,528.10. Market Thesis (Bullish/Reversal): I am leaning Bullish for the remainder of the session. While the NDX opened in the red and fell roughly 0.6% this morning, the index has found firm intraday support at the 25,450 mark, which aligns with the 5-day moving average. The current weakness feels like a healthy consolidation after last week's "Santa Rally" surge. Technically, the RSI has cooled off from near-overbought levels, providing more "headroom" for an afternoon bounce. I anticipate that institutional fund managers will look to "window dress" their portfolios in the final hour of trade, specifically re-allocating toward high-performers like Apple and Amazon to ensure their year-end statements look strong. With the 10-year Treasury yield easing to 4.12%, the macro environment remains supportive of tech valuations.
My Strategy: My strategy today is Tactical Long. I have added to my TQQQ position at the 25,480 level to scalp the anticipated mean reversion back toward the 25,550 resistance zone. I have placed a tight stop-loss at 25,420 to protect against any surprise volatility. For my long-term core holdings in NVDA and MSFT, I am simply holding steady, as I expect the broader "Santa Claus Rally" to continue through the first two trading days of January.
Market Thesis (Bullish/Reversal):
I am leaning Bullish for the remainder of the session. While the NDX opened in the red and fell roughly 0.6% this morning, the index has found firm intraday support at the 25,450 mark, which aligns with the 5-day moving average. The current weakness feels like a healthy consolidation after last week's "Santa Rally" surge. Technically, the RSI has cooled off from near-overbought levels, providing more "headroom" for an afternoon bounce. I anticipate that institutional fund managers will look to "window dress" their portfolios in the final hour of trade, specifically re-allocating toward high-performers like Apple and Amazon to ensure their year-end statements look strong. With the 10-year Treasury yield easing to 4.12%, the macro environment remains supportive of tech valuations.
My Strategy:
My strategy today is Tactical Long. I have added to my TQQQ position at the 25,480 level to scalp the anticipated mean reversion back toward the 25,550 resistance zone. I have placed a tight stop-loss at 25,420 to protect against any surprise volatility. For my long-term core holdings in NVDA and MSFT, I am simply holding steady, as I expect the broader "Santa Claus Rally" to continue through the first two trading days of January.