My Prediction: I expect the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) to close today’s early session at 25,645.20.
Market Thesis (Bullish): I am maintaining a Bullish stance for Day 3 of the quest. Historically, the "Santa Claus Rally" begins on December 24, and today’s early price action supports this seasonal tailwind. The Nasdaq 100 is currently trading above its 5-day moving average of 25,550, and yesterday’s robust 4.3% GDP growth print has reinforced confidence in a resilient economy heading into 2026. While the market is technically "overbought" on shorter timeframes with an RSI near 67, the lack of institutional selling pressure during this holiday-shortened session typically allows for a "melt-up" effect. With the VIX staying low and tech giants like NVIDIA and Apple showing stable consolidation, I expect a quiet but positive finish as we head into the Christmas break.
My Strategy: My strategy today is Delta Neutral/Long Bias. Because of the early 1:00 PM ET close and the thin liquidity, I am avoiding high-frequency trades that could be stung by erratic spreads. I am holding my core QQQ and MAGS (Magnificent Seven ETF) positions to benefit from the year-end window dressing. I have set a sell-limit order at 25,675 to trim some profits if we see a last-minute spike before the bell, but otherwise, I am staying invested to capture the full seven-day Santa Rally window that officially opens today.
Market Thesis (Bullish):
I am maintaining a Bullish stance for Day 3 of the quest. Historically, the "Santa Claus Rally" begins on December 24, and today’s early price action supports this seasonal tailwind. The Nasdaq 100 is currently trading above its 5-day moving average of 25,550, and yesterday’s robust 4.3% GDP growth print has reinforced confidence in a resilient economy heading into 2026. While the market is technically "overbought" on shorter timeframes with an RSI near 67, the lack of institutional selling pressure during this holiday-shortened session typically allows for a "melt-up" effect. With the VIX staying low and tech giants like NVIDIA and Apple showing stable consolidation, I expect a quiet but positive finish as we head into the Christmas break.
My Strategy:
My strategy today is Delta Neutral/Long Bias. Because of the early 1:00 PM ET close and the thin liquidity, I am avoiding high-frequency trades that could be stung by erratic spreads. I am holding my core QQQ and MAGS (Magnificent Seven ETF) positions to benefit from the year-end window dressing. I have set a sell-limit order at 25,675 to trim some profits if we see a last-minute spike before the bell, but otherwise, I am staying invested to capture the full seven-day Santa Rally window that officially opens today.