NDX @ 25,655 (Dec 24 close) Thesis: Bulls in control (but volatility can spike in a shortened session). Yesterday’s close at 25,587.83 keeps the uptrend intact, and holiday liquidity often creates a “grind” tape where dips get bought rather than extended selloffs. I’m watching whether price holds above the prior close area and whether pullbacks get absorbed quickly—if so, that’s bulls defending key levels and squeezing late shorts into the early close. Bears only take control if we lose support and fail to reclaim it (distribution + lower highs intraday). With an early close, I’m expecting a tighter range and a slight upward drift into the bell rather than a full trend day.
Strategy / Show my work: • Entry (long): scale in 25,520–25,560, add on reclaim/hold above 25,600 • Stop: 25,450 (clean break = thesis invalid) • Targets: 25,700 first, then trail; final close call 25,655 • If 25,450 breaks, I flip short toward 25,320–25,350.
Thesis: Bulls in control (but volatility can spike in a shortened session). Yesterday’s close at 25,587.83 keeps the uptrend intact, and holiday liquidity often creates a “grind” tape where dips get bought rather than extended selloffs. I’m watching whether price holds above the prior close area and whether pullbacks get absorbed quickly—if so, that’s bulls defending key levels and squeezing late shorts into the early close. Bears only take control if we lose support and fail to reclaim it (distribution + lower highs intraday). With an early close, I’m expecting a tighter range and a slight upward drift into the bell rather than a full trend day.
Strategy / Show my work:
• Entry (long): scale in 25,520–25,560, add on reclaim/hold above 25,600
• Stop: 25,450 (clean break = thesis invalid)
• Targets: 25,700 first, then trail; final close call 25,655
• If 25,450 breaks, I flip short toward 25,320–25,350.